The first quarter of 2024 in Manhattan revealed a 13% decrease in trade volume compared to the same period in 2023, from about $1 billion to $933 million. Despite this slowdown, there were several notable upticks in specific market segments.
While the overall volume of trades declined, certain price points and neighborhoods saw significant growth. Midtown East saw a remarkable 305% increase in trade volume, from $24 million to $97 million, and a 50% increase in the number of trades, from 2 to 3, indicating a revitalization of this historically underperforming area. The Upper West Side also stood out, with a 57% increase in trade volume, from $96 million to $151 million, and a 150% increase in the number of trades from 4 to 10, showing a renewed interest in this traditionally quieter area that ranked among the lowest in terms of transaction quantity and volume over the last few years.
The most significant transactions included the sale of 140 W 11th Street for $72.5 million, 730 5th Avenue #24A for $62 million, and 730 5th Avenue #PH23 for just over $50 million. These high-value transactions suggest that demand for ultra-luxury properties remains strong despite broader market fluctuations.
"The first quarter of 2024 was a challenging time for the Manhattan market, but we saw encouraging signs of resilience in certain segments," says Cody Vichinsky, President and Founding Partner at Bespoke. "The 21% uptick in high-value trade volume, especially in the $40 million+ segment from $152 to $185 million, demonstrates that there's still strong demand for unique and exceptional properties. Additionally, the growth in Midtown East and the Upper West Side shows that buyers are looking for value
and opportunities in historically overlooked areas.”
While Manhattan as a whole experienced a slower pace of transactions, there were pockets of growth that provided some optimism. Last year, Q1 2023 was the second slowest quarter in the Manhattan market, followed by a larger uptick in trades during Q2. This pattern could repeat in 2024, with 71 properties currently in contract, indicating the potential for increased activity in Q2.
The Downtown market continued to be a strong performer, accounting for 32% of the overall trades in Q1. Condo/co-op trades dominated the market, comprising 79% of all transactions. Bespoke played its role in the quarter's activity, facilitating trades such as 111 Murray Street #60E, which had a last ask of $13.5 million. These trends suggest that despite the overall slowdown, the market is showing resilience in specific segments and neighborhoods.
Looking ahead, the outlook for the rest of 2024 is optimistic. For Manhattan to outperform 2023's annual total of 229 trades worth $10 million or more, the market will need to see an average of 61 trades per quarter. Given the current trends and the properties in contract, this target could be achievable. The key factors will be interest rates, market sentiment, and the pace at which properties in contract close. If these elements align, Manhattan's real estate market will experience a resurgence as the year progresses.
